Las encuestas sitúan de forma reiterada a una alianza entre el PP y VOX por encima de la mayoría absoluta, con el PP como primera fuerza y VOX consolidada, cerca del 20 %.
Si ese resultado se confirma el 29 de noviembre, el Ejecutivo entrante heredará una España maltrecha, necesitada de un trabajo de reconstrucción de dimensiones excepcionales.
No se trata solo de cambiar de Gobierno, sino de sortear el campo de minas que deja el sanchismo: instituciones politizadas, un aparato administrativo con nombramientos de confianza acumulados, investigaciones judiciales que avanzan con lentitud tras crisis graves y una ciudadanía que llega a las urnas con la confianza erosionada. Recuperar esa confianza perdida exigirá resultados visibles y ejemplaridad, no meros gestos. Los ciudadanos han vivido la gestión contestada de la crisis de Ceuta de julio de 2026, los accidentes mortales de alta velocidad en Adamuz y Urda, la percepción de opacidad en el destino de fondos europeos y una presión fiscal elevada sin mejoras proporcionales en los servicios básicos.
Ese legado no se disuelve con un cambio de siglas.
En el plano internacional, el deterioro es abierto y documentado. Las relaciones con Estados Unidos, Israel y Argentina se han tensado de manera pública. El reconocimiento del Estado de Palestina, las restricciones al tránsito de material militar hacia Israel y el cese de la embajadora española en Tel Aviv han marcado un distanciamiento claro. Con Argentina, los intercambios de insultos con Javier Milei —incluidas calificaciones de “dictador”, “ladrón” o “corrupto”— y episodios de llamada a consultas o retirada de embajadora han dejado la relación bilateral enfriada. El propio Sánchez ha reivindicado recientemente que “España no se gobierna desde Washington, Tel Aviv, Moscú o Buenos Aires”, en un discurso que sitúa a esos países en el lado de la interferencia.
Al mismo tiempo, el acercamiento a China y la percepción de mayor confrontación con aliados tradicionales han contribuido a una imagen de España más polarizada y menos predecible.
Recuperar prestigio y reabrir canales de confianza exigirá gestos concretos de reequilibrio y una diplomacia menos ideologizada.
El campo de minas interno incluye también una deuda pública que supera el 100 % del PIB y que las agencias de calificación señalan como factor que limita mejoras de rating, una corrupción extendida tras años de nombramientos y de falta de rendición de cuentas, y unas instituciones cuya neutralidad se cuestiona.
Pero quizás la mina más explosiva sea la deuda de las pensiones. Sánchez dejará un deuda en la Seguridad Social de más de 136.000 millones de euros.
Un Gobierno PP-Vox tendrá que demostrar que no se limita a un recambio de lealtades, sino que depura responsabilidades donde haya negligencia o irregularidades documentadas, profesionaliza la gestión de infraestructuras y fronteras, restaura el protagonismo del Parlamento y del ciudadano, y rompe las dependencias políticas con formaciones separatistas o con herencias del pasado terrorista que han condicionado la gobernabilidad.
Sanear la economía, poner en su sitio a Marruecos, que parece cogobernar España con Sánchez, reducir la opacidad y devolver la confianza en el futuro del país forman parte de ese mismo esfuerzo. Sin transparencia real y sin sometimiento ejemplar a la Justicia, cualquier discurso de regeneración será recibido con escepticismo.
El cambio solo será creíble si se traduce en rendición de cuentas real, en la despolitización de los órganos sensibles, en la lucha real contra la corrupción y en la sustitución de una lógica de control y de polarización por una de servicio público ejemplar.
De lo contrario, el campo de minas seguirá activo y España no dejará atrás el dramático deterioro que padece.
Francisco Rubiales
English version:
The “Minefield” Facing Spain’s Next Government
The next government, especially if, as the polls suggest, it is formed by an alliance between the People’s Party (PP) and VOX, will face an enormous task. It will have to carry out far-reaching changes while navigating the minefield left behind by defeated Sanchismo.
It will have to win back the trust of citizens, restore the international standing Spain has lost under Sánchez, rebuild its friendships with the United States, Israel, Argentina and other countries, which Sánchez and his erratic policies have damaged, pay off part of the foreign debt that is already suffocating public finances, eradicate corruption that has spread throughout the system under Sanchismo, restore confidence in politics and in Spain’s future, free institutions from political control, give citizens and Parliament back their rightful prominence, break the government’s unworthy and perverse alliances with separatists and former terrorists, put the economy back on a sound footing, strengthen infrastructure, improve deteriorating essential services such as healthcare, education and transport, solve the housing crisis, which has reached dramatic proportions, put an end to lies, fear and hatred as methods of government, and undertake countless other reforms needed to ensure that Spain ceases to be Europe’s pigsty and one of the most corrupt countries on the planet.
Polls have repeatedly placed an alliance between the PP and VOX above the threshold for an absolute majority, with the PP as the leading party and VOX firmly established at close to 20 percent.
If that result is confirmed on November 29, the incoming government will inherit a battered Spain in need of a reconstruction effort on an exceptional scale.
This is not simply a matter of changing the government. It is about navigating the minefield left by Sanchismo: politicised institutions, an administrative apparatus burdened with accumulated political appointments, judicial investigations moving slowly after serious crises, and a public whose trust has been eroded. Restoring that lost confidence will require visible results and exemplary conduct, not mere gestures.
Citizens have experienced the widely criticised handling of the July 2026 Ceuta crisis, the deadly high-speed rail accidents in Adamuz and Urda, the perception of opacity surrounding the use of European funds, and a heavy tax burden that has not been matched by proportional improvements in essential services.
That legacy will not disappear with a change of party labels.
On the international front, the deterioration is open and documented. Relations with the United States, Israel and Argentina have been publicly strained. Recognition of the State of Palestine, restrictions on the transit of military matériel to Israel and the dismissal of Spain’s ambassador in Tel Aviv have marked a clear distancing.
With Argentina, exchanges of insults with Javier Milei — including descriptions such as “dictator”, “thief” and “corrupt” — and episodes involving the recall of ambassadors or their withdrawal have left bilateral relations cooled. Sánchez himself has recently insisted that “Spain is not governed from Washington, Tel Aviv, Moscow or Buenos Aires”, in a speech that places those countries on the side of interference.
At the same time, closer ties with China and the perception of growing confrontation with traditional allies have contributed to an image of Spain as a more polarised and less predictable country.
Restoring Spain’s standing and reopening channels of trust will require concrete gestures to rebalance relations and a less ideological approach to diplomacy.
The domestic minefield also includes public debt exceeding 100 percent of GDP, which rating agencies identify as a factor limiting the scope for credit-rating improvements; widespread corruption after years of political appointments and a lack of accountability; and institutions whose neutrality is being called into question.
But perhaps the most explosive mine is the pension debt. Sánchez will leave Social Security with a debt of more than 136 billion euros.
A PP–VOX government will have to prove that it is not merely replacing one set of political loyalties with another. It must establish accountability wherever negligence or documented irregularities exist, professionalise the management of infrastructure and borders, restore the prominence of Parliament and citizens, and break political dependencies on separatist parties or on the legacy of terrorism that has shaped the country’s ability to form governments.
Putting the economy back on a sound footing, standing up to Morocco, which appears to be co-governing Spain alongside Sánchez, reducing opacity and restoring confidence in the country’s future are all part of the same undertaking. Without genuine transparency and exemplary submission to the rule of law, any talk of regeneration will be met with scepticism.
Change will only be credible if it leads to real accountability, the depoliticisation of sensitive institutions, a genuine fight against corruption, and a shift away from a system based on control and polarisation towards one founded on exemplary public service.
Otherwise, the minefield will remain active, and Spain will not leave behind the dramatic deterioration it is suffering.
Francisco Rubiales
Si ese resultado se confirma el 29 de noviembre, el Ejecutivo entrante heredará una España maltrecha, necesitada de un trabajo de reconstrucción de dimensiones excepcionales.
No se trata solo de cambiar de Gobierno, sino de sortear el campo de minas que deja el sanchismo: instituciones politizadas, un aparato administrativo con nombramientos de confianza acumulados, investigaciones judiciales que avanzan con lentitud tras crisis graves y una ciudadanía que llega a las urnas con la confianza erosionada. Recuperar esa confianza perdida exigirá resultados visibles y ejemplaridad, no meros gestos. Los ciudadanos han vivido la gestión contestada de la crisis de Ceuta de julio de 2026, los accidentes mortales de alta velocidad en Adamuz y Urda, la percepción de opacidad en el destino de fondos europeos y una presión fiscal elevada sin mejoras proporcionales en los servicios básicos.
Ese legado no se disuelve con un cambio de siglas.
En el plano internacional, el deterioro es abierto y documentado. Las relaciones con Estados Unidos, Israel y Argentina se han tensado de manera pública. El reconocimiento del Estado de Palestina, las restricciones al tránsito de material militar hacia Israel y el cese de la embajadora española en Tel Aviv han marcado un distanciamiento claro. Con Argentina, los intercambios de insultos con Javier Milei —incluidas calificaciones de “dictador”, “ladrón” o “corrupto”— y episodios de llamada a consultas o retirada de embajadora han dejado la relación bilateral enfriada. El propio Sánchez ha reivindicado recientemente que “España no se gobierna desde Washington, Tel Aviv, Moscú o Buenos Aires”, en un discurso que sitúa a esos países en el lado de la interferencia.
Al mismo tiempo, el acercamiento a China y la percepción de mayor confrontación con aliados tradicionales han contribuido a una imagen de España más polarizada y menos predecible.
Recuperar prestigio y reabrir canales de confianza exigirá gestos concretos de reequilibrio y una diplomacia menos ideologizada.
El campo de minas interno incluye también una deuda pública que supera el 100 % del PIB y que las agencias de calificación señalan como factor que limita mejoras de rating, una corrupción extendida tras años de nombramientos y de falta de rendición de cuentas, y unas instituciones cuya neutralidad se cuestiona.
Pero quizás la mina más explosiva sea la deuda de las pensiones. Sánchez dejará un deuda en la Seguridad Social de más de 136.000 millones de euros.
Un Gobierno PP-Vox tendrá que demostrar que no se limita a un recambio de lealtades, sino que depura responsabilidades donde haya negligencia o irregularidades documentadas, profesionaliza la gestión de infraestructuras y fronteras, restaura el protagonismo del Parlamento y del ciudadano, y rompe las dependencias políticas con formaciones separatistas o con herencias del pasado terrorista que han condicionado la gobernabilidad.
Sanear la economía, poner en su sitio a Marruecos, que parece cogobernar España con Sánchez, reducir la opacidad y devolver la confianza en el futuro del país forman parte de ese mismo esfuerzo. Sin transparencia real y sin sometimiento ejemplar a la Justicia, cualquier discurso de regeneración será recibido con escepticismo.
El cambio solo será creíble si se traduce en rendición de cuentas real, en la despolitización de los órganos sensibles, en la lucha real contra la corrupción y en la sustitución de una lógica de control y de polarización por una de servicio público ejemplar.
De lo contrario, el campo de minas seguirá activo y España no dejará atrás el dramático deterioro que padece.
Francisco Rubiales
English version:
The “Minefield” Facing Spain’s Next Government
The next government, especially if, as the polls suggest, it is formed by an alliance between the People’s Party (PP) and VOX, will face an enormous task. It will have to carry out far-reaching changes while navigating the minefield left behind by defeated Sanchismo.
It will have to win back the trust of citizens, restore the international standing Spain has lost under Sánchez, rebuild its friendships with the United States, Israel, Argentina and other countries, which Sánchez and his erratic policies have damaged, pay off part of the foreign debt that is already suffocating public finances, eradicate corruption that has spread throughout the system under Sanchismo, restore confidence in politics and in Spain’s future, free institutions from political control, give citizens and Parliament back their rightful prominence, break the government’s unworthy and perverse alliances with separatists and former terrorists, put the economy back on a sound footing, strengthen infrastructure, improve deteriorating essential services such as healthcare, education and transport, solve the housing crisis, which has reached dramatic proportions, put an end to lies, fear and hatred as methods of government, and undertake countless other reforms needed to ensure that Spain ceases to be Europe’s pigsty and one of the most corrupt countries on the planet.
Polls have repeatedly placed an alliance between the PP and VOX above the threshold for an absolute majority, with the PP as the leading party and VOX firmly established at close to 20 percent.
If that result is confirmed on November 29, the incoming government will inherit a battered Spain in need of a reconstruction effort on an exceptional scale.
This is not simply a matter of changing the government. It is about navigating the minefield left by Sanchismo: politicised institutions, an administrative apparatus burdened with accumulated political appointments, judicial investigations moving slowly after serious crises, and a public whose trust has been eroded. Restoring that lost confidence will require visible results and exemplary conduct, not mere gestures.
Citizens have experienced the widely criticised handling of the July 2026 Ceuta crisis, the deadly high-speed rail accidents in Adamuz and Urda, the perception of opacity surrounding the use of European funds, and a heavy tax burden that has not been matched by proportional improvements in essential services.
That legacy will not disappear with a change of party labels.
On the international front, the deterioration is open and documented. Relations with the United States, Israel and Argentina have been publicly strained. Recognition of the State of Palestine, restrictions on the transit of military matériel to Israel and the dismissal of Spain’s ambassador in Tel Aviv have marked a clear distancing.
With Argentina, exchanges of insults with Javier Milei — including descriptions such as “dictator”, “thief” and “corrupt” — and episodes involving the recall of ambassadors or their withdrawal have left bilateral relations cooled. Sánchez himself has recently insisted that “Spain is not governed from Washington, Tel Aviv, Moscow or Buenos Aires”, in a speech that places those countries on the side of interference.
At the same time, closer ties with China and the perception of growing confrontation with traditional allies have contributed to an image of Spain as a more polarised and less predictable country.
Restoring Spain’s standing and reopening channels of trust will require concrete gestures to rebalance relations and a less ideological approach to diplomacy.
The domestic minefield also includes public debt exceeding 100 percent of GDP, which rating agencies identify as a factor limiting the scope for credit-rating improvements; widespread corruption after years of political appointments and a lack of accountability; and institutions whose neutrality is being called into question.
But perhaps the most explosive mine is the pension debt. Sánchez will leave Social Security with a debt of more than 136 billion euros.
A PP–VOX government will have to prove that it is not merely replacing one set of political loyalties with another. It must establish accountability wherever negligence or documented irregularities exist, professionalise the management of infrastructure and borders, restore the prominence of Parliament and citizens, and break political dependencies on separatist parties or on the legacy of terrorism that has shaped the country’s ability to form governments.
Putting the economy back on a sound footing, standing up to Morocco, which appears to be co-governing Spain alongside Sánchez, reducing opacity and restoring confidence in the country’s future are all part of the same undertaking. Without genuine transparency and exemplary submission to the rule of law, any talk of regeneration will be met with scepticism.
Change will only be credible if it leads to real accountability, the depoliticisation of sensitive institutions, a genuine fight against corruption, and a shift away from a system based on control and polarisation towards one founded on exemplary public service.
Otherwise, the minefield will remain active, and Spain will not leave behind the dramatic deterioration it is suffering.
Francisco Rubiales